The bears are back.

Yep, its that time again, markets are in a recession, asian markets just recently crashed monday, the fed dropped interest rates 75 points, and at the start of this tuesday the dow was down as much as 500 (currently sitting at -100, but just hold tight, as there will be a 3oclock selloff).

 

The dollar is tanking.

Housing is in the slumps.

Retail is down.

banks dont have liquidity.

Goodbye bulls, hello bears.

 

 

Do you have money saved up? Are you ready for the crash? Have you spoken to trigori, and asked why he is being so bearish?

It's cause we haven't killed Kael yet.

the fed dropped interest rates 75 points,

that's .75. And there's been talk for weeks that they'd drop another .5 after the last drop. That's not uncommon for an economy like this nor is it an unwelcome stimulus to the market.

 

, and at the start of this tuesday the dow was down as much as 500

and then it went right back up about 300...

 

Seriously, spreading fear of recession is about the lamest thing ever. I'm tired of hearing radio/tv pundints and their fear mongoring. It can only make matters worse. A slump after like 15 years of serious growth is not that big of deal. The GDP is still growing which means no recession yet. If you want to be worried about something, worry over the potential rise in cost of food over the next 10 years. My lattes are going to cost me 8 bucks in 5 years. That's what you should be scared of!

Edited January 22, 2008 by Hykos

that's .75. And there's been talk for weeks that they'd drop another .5 after the last drop. That's not uncommon for an economy like this nor is it an unwelcome stimulus to the market.

and then it went right back up about 300...

 

Seriously, spreading fear of recession is about the lamest thing ever. I'm tired of hearing radio/tv pundints and their fear mongoring. It can only make matters worse. A slump after like 15 years of serious growth is not that big of deal. The GDP is still growing which means no recession yet. If you want to be worried about something, worry over the potential rise in cost of food over the next 10 years. My lattes are going to cost me 8 bucks in 5 years. That's what you should be scared of!

 

 

Asian and european markets are down 5-8% yesterday alone. And yes, its .75, OR 75 basis points. Also, how are we not in a recession? the markets have been dropping for almost a month, we are down about 20% from our highs, subprime is still effed up, the banks are running dry. 800 companies today have posted 52 week lows, this is by no means "growth".

It's true. We are in a recession, but it's not a depression.

 

Signed,

A kid with only a slight idea of what he talking about.

how are we not in a recession? the markets have been dropping for almost a month, we are down about 20% from our highs, subprime is still effed up, the banks are running dry. 800 companies today have posted 52 week lows, this is by no means "growth".

 

It's true. We are in a recession, but it's not a depression.

 

sigh... just because growth slows doesn't mean it's a recession.

 

"In macroeconomics, a recession is a decline in a country's gross domestic product (GDP), or negative real economic growth, for two or more successive quarters of a year."

 

As I said, the GDP is still growing. Last report which came out in November and revised in December puts our GDP at a increase of 4.9%. It'll be almost two more months before we see another report and it'll be June before you can declare it a recession. Most of those banks you're referring too have already been bailed out by foreign investors, and it's a result of the subprime market, which yes will be a problem for awhile. They dug their own grave and they'll lay in it for a year or two. That doesn't mean the entire economy is fucked though. The only major bank in crisis I can think of is Northern Rock, and that's Britain's problem, not ours. And "800 companies"? seriously? you know there's like tens of thousands right? Just because a few high profile companies mostly in specific markets or fields are having issues doesn't mean all are. My company has been hammered by a slow market for the past six months, but we're still growing, still hiring people, still making money, still weathering a short term storm. Most are in the same boat. I wouldn't call that a recession.

 

It's no different than it was in 90-92 and 01-03 when the economy slowed. They both led to recession mongering, neither ended in recession, both we rebounded from very well. We haven't had a recession in 25 years. I don't expect one now.

Edited January 22, 2008 by Hykos

It's true. We are in a recession, but it's not a depression.

 

Correct, not a depression, nor do i see it going to a depression.

 

As I said, the GDP is still growing. Last report which came out in November and revised in December puts our GDP at a increase of 4.9%. It'll be almost two more months before we see another report and it'll be June before you can declare it a recession.

 

You act as if investors, or people w/ money to lose would actually wait until the government announces such things.

 

And "800 companies"? seriously? you know there's like tens of thousands right?

 

Perhaps i should have mentioned that those 800 were of nasdaq/dow industrial indexes.

 

And Hykos...

 

Condescending -adjective, showing or implying a usually patronizing descent from dignity or superiority: They resented the older neighbors' condescending cordiality.

 

I know how to use the internet to acquire definitions as well.

Then you should have used it to look up the definition of the word "recession".

 

(sorry I had to)

 

You act as if investors, or people w/ money to lose would actually wait until the government announces such things.

No, and that's the problem. They react to rumors and fear and create the problem before it even exists by doing stupid things like pulling out all their investments at the same time and sending a market into a nose dive for no reason.

 

Perhaps i should have mentioned that those 800 were of nasdaq/dow industrial indexes.

The back bone of our economy is built on small and medium size businesses. If you see your local shops closing their doors due to an economic slow down, then you have cause for concern. If some fortune 500 company lays off a couple hundred people, though, it's no big deal in the long run (well, except for those couple hundred people obviously).

Edited January 22, 2008 by Hykos

I don't know a whole lot about these thigns, Ill admit that. But something Hykos said made me think of this. About the small and medium businesses. I know a number of them around this area ( Small businesses) having seen a serious decline , many have closed and those that are open are not doing nearly as well as they were even 1 year ago.

 

Now this neither confirms or denies what either of you are saying, many of these places are hobby/game shops. To be honest hobby/game shops do poorer and poorer every year, due to on-line games, video games, and internet shops.

Now this neither confirms or denies what either of you are saying, many of these places are hobby/game shops. To be honest hobby/game shops do poorer and poorer every year, due to on-line games, video games, and internet shops.

 

This will happen to till the day we die, you could call it a paradigm shift.

 

Then you should have used it to look up the definition of the word "recession".

 

While im aware of what recession means, our difference is how we view it, regardless, you leave me with: Touché.

Edited January 22, 2008 by Bishop

I don't know a whole lot about these thigns, Ill admit that. But something Hykos said made me think of this. About the small and medium businesses. I know a number of them around this area ( Small businesses) having seen a serious decline , many have closed and those that are open are not doing nearly as well as they were even 1 year ago.

 

Now this neither confirms or denies what either of you are saying, many of these places are hobby/game shops. To be honest hobby/game shops do poorer and poorer every year, due to on-line games, video games, and internet shops.

 

I guess it wasn't the best of examples since it could be due to increased competition, local problems, or other factors. Douglasville, for example, has been growing steadily for a while and it doesn't look to be changing. A lot of new strip malls, new businesses and restaurants in the old downtown area, and all in the past few months. Things like that. That doesn't typically happen when the economy is in the shitter like most of the media wants you to think it is right now. It's possible that could all change this year I guess. I'd just like to think it's not.

 

This thread is almost full of win....almost.

 

Charleston is growing and expanding daily, despite this alleged recession. Another 1000 acres have been cleared out near Jedburg for a big development project, lots of strip malls are opening up in North Charleston, both big 4 year public universities are expanding their campuses, AND they opened a Moe's up near my house.

 

I'm more inclined to agree with Hykos on this issue. The media particularly is doing a great job of hyping up this nonevent (i.e. CNN is currently showing a real time picture of the NYSE board with the INDU/INDP up there so everyone can wait with bated breath as it moves up and down 5 points).

 

It's more of a media play than anything imo, and I too will wait for the next quarters reports before I start hollowing out my bombshelter and stuffing money under my mattress.

This thread is almost full of win....almost.

 

Charleston is growing and expanding daily, despite this alleged recession. Another 1000 acres have been cleared out near Jedburg for a big development project, lots of strip malls are opening up in North Charleston, both big 4 year public universities are expanding their campuses, AND they opened a Moe's up near my house.

 

I'm more inclined to agree with Hykos on this issue. The media particularly is doing a great job of hyping up this nonevent (i.e. CNN is currently showing a real time picture of the NYSE board with the INDU/INDP up there so everyone can wait with bated breath as it moves up and down 5 points).

 

It's more of a media play than anything imo, and I too will wait for the next quarters reports before I start hollowing out my bombshelter and stuffing money under my mattress.

 

 

And hykos could be right, my area for instance is still in a state of growth and property values are higher than ever, but its been this way threw the last 2 recessions as well. However, so many downturns so quick, on such a large scale, makes me bearish.

And hykos could be right, my area for instance is still in a state of growth and property values are higher than ever, but its been this way threw the last 2 recessions as well. However, so many downturns so quick, on such a large scale, makes me bearish.

 

The last two recessions were in the 70's and 80's. Since I wasn't born at that time I don't know how things were, but I do know that at the last recession it was preceeded by massive unemployment, well over 10% (edit: 13.5%. GG Jimmy Carter). Our national unemployment rate is still relatively low (5% for 12/07). Increased slightly in the last quarter a little, but still low. I'd look at those numbers as an indicator before I look at whatever the lastest OMGWE'REALLSCREWED headline CNN is currently running for whether or not we're heading into a recession.

Edited January 22, 2008 by Hykos

I dont much care for why it's happening. What I DO know is that since January 1, I've lost about $15,000 on the market and I DONT F&^*^KING LIKE IT!

 

Make it stop. kthx

 

ps CNN is a very liberal-minded station. I doubt that it's much of a coincedence that they are running doom and gloom stories in a VERY important election year for Democrats. I would expect to see the same from MSNBC if a liberal was in the White House and the right controlled Congress.

Edited January 22, 2008 by Daghostmaker

I think I am with Hykos on this one. Though the American economy does look pretty bad it is mostly because the market is shifting. I don't think calling the current state of the American economy is fair since it doesn't even coincide with the definition of the word. I've seen some of the coverage of the so called recession on CNN and it is quite sad because their exposition of the topic pure rhetoric and makes very little logical sense. Not to mention that you guys are in campaigning season and the economy is one of the platforms that most candidates are trying to push. I wouldn't be surprised if the hype over this recession is somewhat related to the campaigning season. However, I do not have proof of this.